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PeachClover

Comment to a PC Magazine Article

After a week of oogling it, I bought the April copy of MaximumPC magazine.  I should never have done this as the mag is mostly ads, bad advice, and speculation.  One bad speculation was in the article 6 Technologies That are Destined to Disappear and 6 Technologies That Will Stick Around.  The following is my open response that I share with the web.

To Go
6.Handheld Gaming Consoles
You suggest that smartphones will replace handheld gaming consoles because carrying multiple devices is not efficient, and for a very responsible adult with lots of money and very few pockets you are right.  However, you have to remember that the HGC market is primarily with teens and children who have a tendency to forget their phones and run them in the wash.  Because the market for this entertainment is largely for children, it is safer for them to have multiple low efficiency devices so that WHEN it meets it's horrible death and/or disappearance it is not costly to replace and does not take away from the function of the other devices.  
Furthermore, the current design of smartphones is not suited for the same level of game play that any current HGC has to offer.  I would like to see HGC games available for smartphones, but the phones have to advance to accommodate.

5.Pre-Recorded Physical Media
CDs, DVDs, and Bluray may seem like dead weight to the jetset can't-sit-still do-it-all person who thinks that once they have the digital install/copy they won't need the physical copy, but once their whatever crashed, it's not going to be a quick fix.  Companies do not want to give the consumer a buy once own forever option for digital purchases, and to my knowledge are fighting to prevent the consumer from making a legal back-up so, even if you want to move something from one device to another the companies want you to buy ANOTHER copy!   But even for movies and such, it is so much more satisfying to own a DVD/Bluray with a box with colorful packaging than to own a file with the name of the movie... I tell you honestly, that that silly colorful plastic box and labeled DVD/Bluray is what convinces many movie pirates to buy the legal copy of their pirated movies.  I'll share another good reason, again children; because DVDs can be played on a cheap player parents don't have to worry about their children touching their extremely valuable PC to be entertained by video, and this, to my understanding, is the main reason why Disney only sells their feature movies in combo packs.
Just as I stated with HGCs, one day pre-recorded media may be out of the picture, but for the changes that need to be made I do not see this happening in your prediction of 5 years.

4.Consumer-Level Hard Drives
First you tell me that pre-recorded media is out, but where will that media be stored if not on a hard drive?!  In the article you say that "the cloud" is taking over, but I think you have forgotten that "the cloud" is merely a connection layer for web browser based applications and if not on the client end then on the server end the data must still be stored.  The hard drive has changed over the years from SCSI, to IDE, to SATA, and now the insides are changing from platters to chips, Granted, their capacity has grown to nearly unbelievable size, but through all of this evolution it's still called a hard drive and we still need them.

3.Stereoscopic 3D TVs That Use Glasses
I am a fan of 3D tech, and even though I do not fully understand it, I have heard that the autostereoscopic tech used for 3DS is a parallax barrier which only works for a relatively small area that only one person can occupy.  Maybe in the future newer tech will be invented to broaden this area, but I don't see it happening fast enough to phase out 3D TVs with glasses.  The way I see it: until it works for theaters, it won't work for home viewing.

2.Ebook Roader
There is little I can say against this except that it will not happen until tablet PCs have a digital ink layer in the screen for reading in sunlight.  I would even go so far as to say that this advancement could take place in the next five years.

1.Keys
...I won't say no, but I must ask how?  There is a lock on my fence, it stays there in the heat of summer, the freeze of winter, and all the humidity that nature can throw at it, but you say a digital device can replace this? ... I can't wait to see it.

To Stay
6.Media Players
Yes, but you show a picture of an ipod, and I don't think those things have what is needed in the modern media player.

5.Landline Telephones
Maybe for companies, but for everyone else, I mainly see VoIP phones if any phones at all.  Even my AT&T Uverse phone is connected through the modem.

4.Internal Combustion Engine
Not if gasoline remains the primary fuel source.

3,2,1. The PC, Keyboard, and Mouse
I find it funny that you forgot to mention monitor, but I feel you are wrong. Keyboards and Mice have changed since their original design.  Both are designed to accommodate the gamer and not the casual user.  I think the future of computers will not use a mouse at all and the design of the keyboard is going to change immensely.  For example, combine with the commonality of the touch screen with onscreen specialty keys, ergonomic keyboard designs that lack some keys could become popular for the ease of use of typing long entries where specialized keys are not necessary.  The best example of this, and my favorite of these designs is the DataHand.
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Added: 7 years, 8 months ago
 
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