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Atlasfield

Pandemic Times

Hi, how are you?  I hope everybody is fine.  :)

Listen, since the problem of this coronavirus started on China I followed all about it because, well, I have some friends on South Korea and I was following their reports about it and... Well, here in Mexico (my country) I smelled they will not doing anything, and is happening, we have some cases but "nothing happen".

So, with my family since february we decided take actions and were preparing just for in case everything get worse. You know, something like happened in Wuhan (but I suspect it will not happen, not because nothing will happen, because our goverment is not doing anything and is lying about the real danger and people is so ignorant and think is a flu).

So tell me guys, what do you think about this situation? do you think is serious or is something less important? at least on my case with my family we are prepared.
Viewed: 132 times
Added: 4 years ago
 
Ronsonic1992
4 years ago
I'm doing wonderful of course thanks for asking atlasfield. How about you my friend :)
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Good to read you are fine.  :)

I´m fine too, for now, here people is confused, is like old times, they are only watching the goverment is saying on tv but all is about lies, they are only saying wash your hands will save you, don´t use the mask, take vitamins C and D will not help you and they are not cancelling public events.

Is a disaster! I am waiting for the worse scenario.
Ronsonic1992
4 years ago
I knew how your feel. But i am a okay as always my friend. It's may not upset me. I'm got some positive feedback
Atlasfield
4 years ago
I´m glad you are fine.

Be safe.  :)
Ronsonic1992
4 years ago
I will thank you atlasfield and you too 😊
ChristheGirariolu
4 years ago
Stock up on supplies now before the panic otherwise there will be nothing left.
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Today we were to buy the last things for our supplies, mostly food for our pets and extra food, and I noticed panic on some cleaning products too.

Also, medicines for a simple flu are not on existence on some drug stores.
Klandagi
4 years ago
I don't think it is trivial, but really: wash your hands, people! I was surprised to go shopping to find the store sold out of toilet paper and frozen pizza, but still had plenty of soap. Wash your hands, drink water. This will help prevent you getting sick, but also lessen the severity.
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Yes I noticed the same too, toilet paper is not anymore on some stores but soap still there.

I am not sure why this obsession of buy all toilet paper, and scared me we watched a woman carrying tons of toilet paper and a lot of soda too.
Furlips
4 years ago
Slightly political rant.
My friend emailed me from England.
On 3/12/20 10:31 AM, Arfa wrote:
> And if I'm truthful, a touch more frightened than before his call ...
This was my reply:
Not to worry dear, our orange shit eating gibbon says it's just a hoax by the liberals to make him look bad.
This is the same orange shit eating gibbon that shut down our entire CDC pandemic response team two years ago. Because, you know, it was Obama's idea.
And now rather than fund health care they gave 1.5 trillion dollars to Wall street because the market went into the toilet.
And he put Mike Pence in charge of the response. His response? "If we accept Jesus, we'll be safe."

Fucking ignorant assholes.
Thousands of people are going to needlessly die because of this.

Bunners
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Same here, at least on USA are "acting", but here in Mexico are not doing absolutly NOTHING. I mean, not control of public spaces, schools still working, airports are not checking, the country is accepting ships, and they are saying not wear the mask, not eat vitamins, only wash your hands and don´t worry is a flu and our health system is a disaster.

I am worried because my parents are older and we depend of the bookstore, if something happen we need to close and see what happen. (sigh) at leas my sister is far away, on Chile, I am not sure how are things there, but I suspect better than here.

Anyway, expect high numbers of infected quickly on case a disaster, and I suspect many people will die but by negligence.
cesarin
4 years ago
" Atlasfield wrote:
Same here, at least on USA are "acting", but here in Mexico are not doing absolutly NOTHING. I mean, not control of public spaces, schools still working, airports are not checking, the country is accepting ships, and they are saying not wear the mask, not eat vitamins, only wash your hands and don´t worry is a flu and our health system is a disaster.

I am worried because my parents are older and we depend of the bookstore, if something happen we need to close and see what happen. (sigh) at leas my sister is far away, on Chile, I am not sure how are things there, but I suspect better than here.

Anyway, expect high numbers of infected quickly on case a disaster, and I suspect many people will die but by negligence.


That is a lie, there are multiple reports that they ARE performing checks on people with infrared cameras and other things.
As for control, you cannot do much regarding people.
Most people are ignorant and will use idiocy like essential oils, homeopathy and other useless stuff.  But this isnt exactly the problem of the government itself.
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Pues creéme que acá en Morelia no estan haciendo nada, incluso hay desabasto en algunos productos como virales, antibioticos y otras medicinas. No se en qué parte vivas que esten checando con infrarrojos, que por cierto, cómo detectan el virus con eso?

No estan haciendo nada las autoridades y hay compras de pánico al menos en un Chedraui que hay cerca de donde vivo, y por alguna razón el papel higiénico es lo primerito que se acabó.
cesarin
4 years ago
" Atlasfield wrote:
Pues creéme que acá en Morelia no estan haciendo nada, incluso hay desabasto en algunos productos como virales, antibioticos y otras medicinas. No se en qué parte vivas que esten checando con infrarrojos, que por cierto, cómo detectan el virus con eso?

No estan haciendo nada las autoridades y hay compras de pánico al menos en un Chedraui que hay cerca de donde vivo, y por alguna razón el papel higiénico es lo primerito que se acabó.


No son normales esas escaseces? porque técnicamente los antibióticos no sirven. El Coronavirus es como dice, un virus. Y no hay vacuna.
Por otro lado tampoco los anti virales sirven, como dije, no hay vacuna.
Relacionado con morelia,  No conozco bien ese lugar pero sobre el DF y todos los bordes como aeropuertos deben de tener. Checa Aristegui noticias.

Sobre compras de pánico, esa es una estupidez viral provocada por desinformación.
Lo mismo sucede en USA. Quien chingados necesita 100 rollos de papel del baño cuando lo que necesitas es estar seguros en casa?

Sobre lo de inflarojos, no es de detectar el virus, si no de detectar personas que presentan síntomas.
Para el Coronavirus es una fiebre muy intensa.

Sobre cruceros, no es necesario revisiones, ya que o los barcos están parados en países normales, o ya simplemente dejaron de operar. Todos los cruceros van a ser desalojados y parados en puertos importantes.

Todos los demás países infectados con contacto con Mexico, ya tienen bloqueos para detectar a los infectados. Y la mayoría tienen bloqueos casi totales.
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Pues si es raro lo de los antibioticos, porque es viral su transmisión, no se porqué hay desabasto, pero me llamó la atención. Obvio no hay vacuna ni tratamiento, pero se combate deacuerdo a los síntomas porque a como yo entiendo parece que a cada paciente le da diferente.

Tengo mucho tiempo que no veo a Aristegui, voy a darle una checada.

Lo que ya no hay al menos acá es el lysol, papel y gel, aunque todavia hay cloro y jabones (de algunos). No se porqué se está dando lo de comprar mucho papel higiénico, pero se está dando aquí también, no se de dónde salió eso de comprar mucho papel, la verdad no lo entiendo o quién ha dado el dato de que hay que comprar mucho. Se me hace raro.

Yo no creo en eso del infrarrojo porque por ejemplo en China y Corea los kits son por medio de sangre o algo asi solamente para detectarlos (y a veces fallan), ahora si es para medir la temperatura igual no sirve porque el virus es asintomático y a lo mejor lo que te detectan es una gripe o una calentura, no se presenta el problema hasta 2 semanas despues.

Aun asi los barcos llegaron, y no sabemos hasta qué punto la gente que desembarcó venía enferma o algo así, pienso que se debieron poner más estrictos para revisarlos, y es que todo está muy relax, y no es así, he visto las conferencias de las 7 con el nuevo peña el hugo lopez... ijole ese cuate no se porqué está allí.

¿Cuáles paises son eso?
cesarin
4 years ago
" Atlasfield wrote:
Pues si es raro lo de los antibioticos, porque es viral su transmisión, no se porqué hay desabasto, pero me llamó la atención. Obvio no hay vacuna ni tratamiento, pero se combate deacuerdo a los síntomas porque a como yo entiendo parece que a cada paciente le da diferente.

Tengo mucho tiempo que no veo a Aristegui, voy a darle una checada.

Lo que ya no hay al menos acá es el lysol, papel y gel, aunque todavia hay cloro y jabones (de algunos). No se porqué se está dando lo de comprar mucho papel higiénico, pero se está dando aquí también, no se de dónde salió eso de comprar mucho papel, la verdad no lo entiendo o quién ha dado el dato de que hay que comprar mucho. Se me hace raro.

Yo no creo en eso del infrarrojo porque por ejemplo en China y Corea los kits son por medio de sangre o algo asi solamente para detectarlos (y a veces fallan), ahora si es para medir la temperatura igual no sirve porque el virus es asintomático y a lo mejor lo que te detectan es una gripe o una calentura, no se presenta el problema hasta 2 semanas despues.

Aun asi los barcos llegaron, y no sabemos hasta qué punto la gente que desembarcó venía enferma o algo así, pienso que se debieron poner más estrictos para revisarlos, y es que todo está muy relax, y no es así, he visto las conferencias de las 7 con el nuevo peña el hugo lopez... ijole ese cuate no se porqué está allí.

¿Cuáles paises son eso?


Los síntomas son casi los mismos que una fiebre gripe fuerte o pulmonía.


Sobre el papel del baño, esa locura comenzó en USA, ni idea porque. (lo mas probable es supuestamente porque es posible que la producción de papel del baño se acabe.
Lo cual es estúpido ya que en donde mas duele la producción son los electrónicos de china. Cosas como alimento y papel del baño son de producción mas local )


Sobre lo de inflarojo. Como que no me entendiste. Lo principal es detectar la fiebre, que es 100% de los casos del covid la persona tiene fiebre.
Obvio va a ver muchos falsos positivos por otras enfermedades pero lo importante es detectar la fiebre y luego usar kits de detección.
No me acuerdo si fue España o canada, quienes ya tienen un kit de menos de 3 horas.

Sobre lo de los barcos, el único barco que se le permitió la entrada ya tenia mas de 30 días en cuarentena sin ningún infectado.
y fue en Cozumel. Ya había sido rechazado en muchos lados del caribe. Lo chistoso? nadie se bajo.

Los países con bloqueos son España, Europa, UK, USA, Japón, Corea, Australia, China y se sumaron otros de centro america y asía.


Atlasfield
4 years ago
Precisamente, ¿cómo van a detectar los casos si el virus es asintomático? o sea, no muestra síntomas y aparecen entre los 7 y 14 días, yo tengo serias dudas sobre los filtros infrarrojos (por cierto, hoy el hugo ese en la conferencia de las 7 dijo que no van a comprar más camaras infrarrojas, ni termómetros, nada, supongo que es por el plan de austeridad).

Habrá que investigar sobre el papel higiénico.  :v
cesarin
4 years ago
" Atlasfield wrote:
Precisamente, ¿cómo van a detectar los casos si el virus es asintomático? o sea, no muestra síntomas y aparecen entre los 7 y 14 días, yo tengo serias dudas sobre los filtros infrarrojos (por cierto, hoy el hugo ese en la conferencia de las 7 dijo que no van a comprar más camaras infrarrojas, ni termómetros, nada, supongo que es por el plan de austeridad).

Habrá que investigar sobre el papel higiénico.  :v


Supuestamente no es transferible hasta que tengas los síntomas.
Y la fiebre precede los síntomas principales.
Blackraven2
4 years ago
This is what is going to happen:

Every day, the virus spreads by about 30%. So if you have 100 infected one day, the next it's going to be 130, then 170, then 220, then 300 ish. Roughly doubling the number of infected every 3 days. Every 10 days you will have 10 times as many.
From 100 infected it takes about 4-5 weeks until you get to saturation - 60% of the population infected.

This would then be first week of  April 2020.

1 week later 20% of those infected will grow seriously ill, and about 8-10% need to go to hospital.

By then the hospitals will already have been overrun and the medical staff itself is infected and in quarantine. That means there is no hospital beds available.

With good intensive care and full medical support, Covid-19 is deadly in less than 2% of all cases.

But with hospitals overrun and without proper intensive care available for most, the fatality rate will be above 5% maybe closer to 6%.

That means, on average, out of every 20 people one will die. But not evenly. The chance to have serious complications from this virus increases with age, weight, existing health problems. If you are young and healthy you will recover.
But if you are above 70, overweight, have diabetes, high blood pressure, are smoking, have any heart or lung issues, you will die.

And so will everyone you know who that description fits.

By end of April, there will not be funerals, there will be mass cremations. Hundreds of thousands of corpses will simply be piled up and set ablaze, especially in megacities.

On top of that, by the time the fatalities amount, the previously hesitant governments will start frantic actions and try to contain the plague. That will be too late, but it will not be without effect. Among with the mass panic, it will cause business to close, workers not being paid, supply chains interrupted, stores without food.
It's possible that this will be accompanied by a financial crisis. Banks might collapse, ATMs out of order, money from bank accounts gone, VISA and credit cards worth nothing. This might be accompanied by rapid inflation and loss of monetary value.

Money won't be without worth though. We have already seen a shortage in toilet paper, so at least the banknotes are good for something...

At this point some will take matters into their own hands. There will be riots, looting, violence on the street.

And in turn there might be countermeasures. Military crowd control, curfew, martial law.

This is the worst case scenario. It will happen in countries in which the government is incapable or unwilling to keep track of and contain the virus while there is still time. These actions would have to start ... right about now.

Due to the up to 14 days incubation time, even if a complete lockdown of a country is ordered, curfew enacted and population quarantained, as it happened in Wuhan, you would see infections and deaths keep rising for 2 weeks, but then slow down and remain on constant level, while those sick would recover.

Every day delay in enacting this complete lockdown will increase the amount of infected as well as the number of fatalities by 30% - doubled every 3 days,  10 times as many in 10 days.

Those are the harsh, raw numbers.
Furlips
4 years ago
Exactly.

Bunners
(Hoping to ride this out)
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Well this is something happened on Wuhan (maybe worse, the information is censured), something similar is happening on Iran excepting they are not burning the bodies, and this you said is on base your knowedge in your country...

In Mexico I feel it will be worse, if the things continue like nothing happen I am pretty sure now on holy week there will be a doom. I feel they are expecting tourism for the first week of april or maybe are waiting for vacations for those days for do not lose the school or something like.

I don´t know what will happen, but my goverment is full of retarded people and they are not doing nothing for save the people. And this you said, in my country if this happen, it will be worse, much worse. Many will die by negligence.
KevinSnowpaw
4 years ago
Serious enough to give consideration to but ultimately the panic is going to create more issues then the virus by a lot and fear mongering fool are not helping
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Is true. Actually I am more worried about those people saying things are not true or are combining this topic with policies, I mean, damn is a health problem, is not about a local party is making a smokescreen because this is a global problem. And sadly exist that kind of people.

Also, why in the world the paper toilet is now important on USA? I don´t get it, who spread the rumor or the idea this will help?
KevinSnowpaw
4 years ago
No idea its amazingly stupid
Blackraven2
4 years ago
I agree, the panic and fear are part of the problem, not of the solution. But if you try to fight fear and panic by suppressing information as China did in the beginning, or by denying facts and proclaiming alternate realities, you lose the chance to mitigate, which leads to millions of dead.

So for politicians and governments this is a very fine line, where they can keep the public (and the markets!) calm, but at the same time contain the outbreak before it gets really bad, because once you have corpses in the street, it becomes a bit hard to contain the mass panic. But harsh measures are not calming the population down either. They "feel" like an overreaction especially since - with the long incubation time - there's a 2 week delay between any measure and its effect.

As such anything any government does must be done not based on the situation now, but on the projected situation in 2 weeks.

In 2 weeks, if the spread rate remains constant, the United States will have around 76000 confirmed sick with Covid19, but closer to 1.9 million infected who aren't showing symptoms yet.

I can't make any projections for Mexico, there's insufficient data. There is the off-chance that the country is being spared by the virus, or the more likely chance that the situation is just like in Italy before the first "unexpected" Covid19 casualty.

The problem is, without a single casualty, its like in limbo. Like Schrödingers cat. If you have casualties, you can calculate back. On average 1 in 50 infected dies 12 days after they have been infected.

If you have one casualty, you can assume, you had 50 infected 12 days prior, so you have around 1200 infected who aren't showing symptoms yet, hidden in the population.

Of course that's on average. There's always the unlikely case that your patient zero dies without infecting anyone else. But that's unlikely. More likely is, you are getting the second fatality the next day. And then 2. Then 4,  etc.  We saw that over and over all over the world in the last week.


KevinSnowpaw
4 years ago
Just be careful what information YOU spread. I know you mean well but there some hyperbole in there...were all a little rattled. Be cautious. Be informative but do not be a storm crow
Blackraven2
4 years ago
caw, caw, caw!

IMHO There is two things that are dangerous.

1. Governments, sworn to serve the people, that fail now and don't act or don't act in time. Thus the health system gets overwhelmed and more people die.

2. People who try to exploit the situation. Like those bastards who bought protective masks in bulk in January and now sell them on amazon for 200 a piece. Speculants who use the downturning market for shortselling, making things worse. etc...

The virus itself won't kill you (unless you're in the risk group, above 70, precondition, as mentioned above) but because of the latter, you might end up being without a job and without savings when this is all over. I'm actually more afraid of the second than the first.
Blackraven2
4 years ago
Just for a update. In my country, today all schools, day care facilities, museums, clubs, bars, sport and other events were closed for at least the next 5 weeks. Shops and restaurants are still open, traveling is still unrestricted, and people still go to work, although a lot of businesses have established wide spread "home office".

This isn't a complete shutdown, but it will likely slow the spread of the virus.

But you won't see that slow down in the news when you look at the daily numbers. That's because the people who show up as infected today have been tested 2 days ago and infected on average a week before that.

So the numbers will keep going up for at least a week and a half, until a slow down will become visible.
And the casualties will keep rising for yet another week beyond that.

This increase in cases, and the effect on the health system will likely lead to additional measures. Like in China and Italy.

China is beyond that. Their rate of new infections has leveled of by end of February, but Italy is still in this limbo right now. They have taken extreme measures, but it will take more time until the effect of these measures becomes fully visible.

Closing of borders on the other hand is only truly effective in very early stages, before there are domestic cases. Once you have the virus in the population, the effect of letting new cases in becomes quite limited.

This article explains that all in more detail and with a lot more hard numbers.

https://medium.com/@tomaspueyo/coronavirus-act-today-or...
Issarlk
4 years ago
I have several monthes of food in the basement, as always, and I'm not going out till it all settles down. So God willing I'll be fine.
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Good for you, well, good luck and I hope in God protects us with prudence and good health.
Tunguska
4 years ago
Some of these things are probably good but the research required to verify is outside my energy levels: https://men-elite.com/2020/03/13/coronavirus-the-truth-...

Simplest thing to help prevent consequences such as lung fibrosis is eating some beef liver (not too much). Especially people in developing countries suffer from lung issues worse than in the first world due to Vit A deficiency (note some people do poorly on it, especially people with pre-existing health conditions, but it has some relation to sun exposure). It counteracts some of the downstream effects of overactive immune system that leads to fibrosis. It also happens to be the most nutrient-dense food available to most people. Also if you're protein deficient you'll suffer more badly, the immune system is critically dependent on amino acids as well as are the functions of vitamin A and protection of cells from damage.

The media is spreading panic but it's difficult to blame them entirely when hygiene is so poor in some countries and people disregarded it, and in fact the health systems are probably happy there's some level of panic: https://www.vox.com/2020/3/10/21171481/coronavirus-us-c...
Atlasfield
4 years ago
I see. I will consider this option.  :o We don´t bought meat because well, here in Mexico the butchers prepare the meat on the market and you directly buy of they, but if one of those is sick? plus I think meat is something easily can be infected plus if is there directly and fresh on a dirty place... or something like, you know, is not exactly Wuhan but the health on some markets of Mexico is questionable.

I heard vitamin c and d will help, since is a problem affect lungs this should increase your defenses, but I don´t know, and about that "curve" of the epidemy our goverment is obsessed with this topic, they are supposing to try to make it more plain... but I am looking they are working so SLOW, even more slow than in USA or any other place of the world.
Tunguska
4 years ago
I understand, I saw the videos of Wuhan meat markets, those are actually a major problem, so I wouldn't risk it in your case, unless local farmers.
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Yeah, those Wuhan markets... damn they are for me cruel, and more with dogs.  :/  Here well they don´t kill the animals there, they come prepared and ready for the butchers sell you the parts you want, but sometimes for example for some mexican food you need tongue of pig there is the head impaled and is kind of creepy... but is Mexico.  xD

I suggested my parents do not eat meat at least from markets, maybe fish or chicken if is clean. Maybe from supermarkets we can make exceptions but I am not in all sure either.

But well, right now we are ready, a lot of pasta and other things do not require even refrigerator, can you imagine suddenly our goverment turns off the electricity? this is my fear because if they are not even cancelling payments example for taxes...
Tunguska
4 years ago
[For sake of disclaimer, in case anyone else reads this: note that some people have suggested that too high retinoic acid (active form of vitamin A otherwise retinol in liver), vitamin D and others could rather increase expression of enzymes the virus was thought to use to infect cells (ACE2); this comment was intended for people at risk of nutrient deficiencies, at the other end of the U curve, and presumably not being treated for specific conditions. You can't eat tons of liver anyway - the kind of retinol intake that forcibly increases retinoic acid levels - since it's so high in trace metals. I eat a weekly minimum]
Tunguska
4 years ago
It appears definitely manageable with things like the following and angiotensin receptor blockers: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=54D62zap67c (the article I posted was on the order of informed guesses)
sherymon
4 years ago
Soy de CDMX trabajando para una compañía canadiense. Ya desde hace semanas mandan comunicados, cancelan viajes de negocios, etc, pero el gobierno no parece estar reaccionando tan rápido como debería.Ahora es fin de semana largo, se regresa a clases 4 días y luego un mes de vacaciones, mejor ya cancelar esos 4 días!
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Si, la verdad es que van MUY lentos, y estan confundiendo a la gente, yo he estado viendo las conferencias de las 7, todo es un show, todo esta mal, e incluso tengo amigos en protección civil y me estan dando otros datos de lo que está pasando al menos en mi ciudad, Morelia, y pues todo mal, no se qué creer, todo es un revoltijo.

Lo que me da más miedo es: esas personas que estan politizando el problema y lo estan desvirtualizando, sacandolo de contexto, desde los memes hasta decir que no está pasando algo o que es una exageración. Yo me quedo con lo que pasó en Wuhan, Iran, Italia y Corea del Sur, con eso se que es serio y que siento que muchos sufrirán por negligencia del gobierno... y en parte de la misma gente.  :/
Tunguska
4 years ago
Tunguska
4 years ago
Please note I posted this in good faith but the article's been taken down. The statistics on it were criticized as well, and I can't say at this point. When I post something like this I do so as someone at risk of serious complications, I have to make bets with my life here and stuff is crazy, but regardless our overall prognosis can be improved more than one way in parallel and in the process defuse some of the fear. If any link I ever post misleads anyone I'm deeply sorry, but this is why we need critical thinking.
Atlasfield
4 years ago
I am sure they are censuring all the info about this.
Tunguska
4 years ago
There are more like this (without placing any particular weight on any of these - I'm not yet an expert in this form of statistics, I read other things): https://www.hoover.org/research/coronavirus-isnt-pandem and several are saved on archive sites, though again beware.

But yes and time will tell if the means to these ends were justified... I have opinion on that but my life might be at the mercy of society's decisions at this point, I'm not rich enough to go live in the northern wilderness or move to another country even if we could.
Atlasfield
4 years ago
Well, the unique thing we can do is prepare the best as we can and try to survive, because we are limited too on all the aspects.
Tunguska
4 years ago
To be clear: besides the risks from the virus itself, if responses aren't measured we'll be facing economic disasters and mandatory vaccinations and the portion of the population particularly susceptible to their complications - which probably includes me, I've had several reactions to vaccines specifically but also health complications from other treatments and in general problems predisposing to complications from both infection and anti-viral treatments - are going to physically suffer when caught by legislation that doesn't appropriately reflect medical needs or provide alternative solutions. Unsubstantiated fears have a real cost. To be clear I'm not at all against vaccinations in principle but in current incarnations they're medically known to carry significant risks to some people that must be weighed against their estimated benefits, and other combined strategies are probably possible to accommodate this.

I do my research and posted what I could over the years but my reputation is already invalidated so I don't know how to communicate this to people anymore.
Tunguska
4 years ago
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